Nationals Thoughts

Back in 1969, Neil Armstrong coined the famous phrase “One small step for man, one giant leap for mankind.” Now, what does a 1969 quote from an astronaut have to do with Major League Baseball? There’s an analogy there, and we’ll get there, I promise, but for now, let’s take a step back in time to March of 2025.

“Graduation Day” was the headline of the Washington Post’s annual MLB kickoff. The Washington Nationals were set to begin their 2025 campaign with a glimmer of hope. After years of losing, following their 2019 World Series title, Washington believed it had finally reached a turning point. Young stars James Wood and Dylan Crews were ready to join the big league club, and the core of Wood and Crews, plus C.J. Abrams, Mackenzie Gore, and others, looked like they may be the face of the next competitive window of Nationals’ baseball.

As the old saying goes, “the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry.” Thus was the case for the Nationals, as 12-months removed from the hopeful start of the 2025 season, Washington is back in full rebuild mode, this time with a new regime in charge. For the first time in over a decade, Washington will open the regular season with a new face in charge, both on and off the diamond.

Paul Toboni, the 35-year-old wunderkind, and Blake Butera, the 33-year-old first-time manager, will hold two of the most prominent positions of power in the Nationals organization this year. It’s a far cry from the group they ran out last year, and in fact, Washington’s organization as a whole looks different than it has since baseball came back to the District in 2005.

The Nationals don’t just have a young President of Baseball Operations and manager; they are young in every way you can imagine. Washington’s GM? Oh, that would be 31-year-old Ani Kilambi. Their pitching coach? Yup, you guessed it, another 30-something, 30-year-old Simon Mathews. It isn’t just the coaching staff and front office that are young; the players on the field follow suit.

Washington enters the season as the fourth-youngest team in Major League Baseball, coming in with an average age of 23-years-old. The Nationals’ quartet of hope, James Wood, C.J. Abrams, Daylen Lile, and Dylan Crews are all 25-years-old or younger. Their potential starting catcher, former top prospect Harry Ford, who was acquired last November, is also just 23 years old. Barring a shocking development, the Nationals will not have a position player in their Opening Day lineup older than 27.

Youth is the theme for the 2026 Nationals, and while Paul Toboni has stated multiple times he intends to “make the scoreboard visible,” the viability of the next seven months will be judged by positive steps in the right direction and player development, rather than wins and losses on the field. 

Earlier this week, Washington’s new head man made a surprising move that bucked a trend of the previous regime. The Nationals made a much-needed upgrade to their starting rotation, signing veteran right-hander Zack Littell to a one-year deal. Littell isn’t an All-Star-level starter, but he is a floor-raiser in the biggest way. The veteran righty threw 186 innings last season across two teams, walking just 1.5 batters per nine innings, second in Major League Baseball behind only superhuman Tarik Skubal.

The acquisition of Littell isn’t going to make many headlines, and it’s not going to singlehandedly help the Nationals climb out of the cellar in the N.L. East, but it represents a welcome willingness to adapt. A willingness to realize you need to consistently be looking to upgrade, even if your team is almost halfway through spring training. This mindset and belief come as a breath of fresh air for Nationals’ fans who sat through years of stubbornness and hardheaded mindsets under Washington’s previous leadership. 

Make no mistake, the Nationals are not going to be a good team this year, at least at the Major League level. Fangraphs has them projected to finish with 69 wins, tied with the Chicago White Sox for the second-fewest in the league. Washington also has just three players (Abrams, Crews, Wood) who Fangraphs projects to earn 2.0 or more WAR in the 2026 season. As a team, Washington’s total projected WAR is just 25.7, putting them nearly 15 points away from the 40 WAR mark, something almost all playoff teams surpass. 

This harsh realization shows just how far the Nationals are from being a contending team once again. But to throw another famous quote at you, “Rome wasn’t built in a day.” When Paul Toboni took the Nationals POBO job, he made it clear that his main focus was hiring the right people and establishing the right practices to build sustainable success over the long term. While ownership may not have opened the checkbook for player acquisitions, potentially due to Toboni’s reluctance, they certainly have on other fronts.

Washington has embraced the modern era of baseball with almost all of their new hires. Blake Butera, who will become the youngest MLB manager of the modern era on Opening Day, comes from the Tampa Bay Rays organization, a franchise deeply rooted in forward-thinking and player development. Three key members of the coaching staff, Simon Mathews, Andrew Aydt, and Luke Dziados, all have backgrounds from Driveline Baseball, the data-driven training facility that has helped numerous Major League players unlock hidden potential. 

Perhaps the clearest indication of organizational philosophy shift is who Toboni picked to be his right-hand man. Ani Kilambi, who has become one of the youngest General Managers in MLB history, had almost too impressive a background for Toboni to pass up. Kilambi got his start in baseball with, you guessed it, the Tampa Bay Rays, working in their analytics group. He quickly rose to Director of Decision Science, helping with data-driven strategy and bullpen analysis. 

Most recently, Kilambi served as the Philadelphia Phillies assistant General Manager from 2021 to 2025, running their research and development/analytics department. The 31-year-old, analytic-driven GM is one of the most impressive hires in the history of the Nationals organization, and Toboni’s selection of him made it abundantly clear what he envisions the future in D.C. looking like. 

Another clear shift in focus is represented by the Nationals finally installing Trajekt machines at both their MLB facility and spring training complex in West Palm Beach. For years, Washington had been one of the few MLB teams without this technology, and within months of Toboni coming into his role, they have rolled one out at both of their major training facilities. 

It’s entirely possible, and probably likely, that these positive developments and philosophy shift won’t improve the Nationals’ on-field record this year. While this may be the case, for the first time, maybe since they hoisted the World Series trophy in Houston on October 30th, 2019, the Nationals as an organization seem to be moving in a unified right direction. Every day, Washington is starting to look more and more like a model modern-day Major League Baseball organization, something even at their bright spots over the past five years they did not resemble.

Remember that Neil Armstrong quote I referenced 1,000 words or so ago? See, I told you it would all tie back together. Washington took plenty of small steps this offseason, and there is finally some hope in our nation’s capital that it can lead to a giant leap for the franchise. 

The Nationals aren’t where they ultimately want to be, but they certainly aren’t where they once were. That in and of itself is progress. In the last six months, Washington took a small step forward in the long journey ahead, but for the first time in over five years, they finally have some direction. And that’s something to feel good about.